Beyond deterrence: a framework for resilient security
Why preparedness, institutional trust and crisis communication belong in the same strategic conversation.
This legacy research perspective has not been independently peer-reviewed. Consult the cited sources when interpreting its conclusions.
Security analysis is strongest when it examines both the capacity to deter a crisis and the ability to manage one. Resilience connects these two tasks.
A wider analytical lens
Traditional assessments of capability remain important, but they do not provide a complete account of security. Institutions, communication channels and civilian systems influence how pressure is absorbed. An interdisciplinary approach considers these factors together, without assuming that strength in one area offsets vulnerability in another.
Make uncertainty explicit
SIPRI’s Yearbook 2025 brings together research on international security, conflict, weapons and technology, alongside arms-control efforts. A central task for analysts using such material is to distinguish observed conditions from forecasts. Scenario analysis can then explore how different assumptions alter an assessment, rather than offering a single prediction with unwarranted certainty.
Priorities for decision-makers
A practical resilience framework should identify essential functions, map plausible disruptions and establish communication responsibilities before a crisis. These steps offer a way to connect strategic assessment with institutional preparedness. They also create clear questions for further research, including how cooperation can survive periods of political tension.
